Is paid advertising displacing organic outcomes?

Four signals check it; even when they line up, causality needs a holdout test.

Does a cannibalization signal mean I should stop the campaign?

No. It identifies a test candidate. Preserve a control slice and measure the incremental outcome before changing the budget.

Does opposite paid and organic movement prove cannibalization?

No. Seasonality, promotions, and measurement changes can create the same pattern, so trend checks and a holdout are still required.

Cannibalization

Ad cannibalization diagnosis

Check four signals that paid outcomes may be replacing organic or branded demand, then narrow the channels that need validation.

Data preparation

One daily or weekly panel CSV powers cannibalization diagnosis → contribution breakdown (MMM) → regression/forecast. Daily data is normalized to weeks automatically, and you can switch among the five mapped targets at any time. CSV data is processed in your browser and never sent to a server. Manage device storage and deletion in Storage.

Run MMM (marketing mix modeling), regression, and forecasting on daily or weekly channel spend + outcomes to see contribution and budget hypotheses.Needs: Date · week · Target outcomes (Y) · Channel spend3 required columns

View the MMM manual · PDF

Inputs, calculations, priors, validation, interpretation, and limitations

Drag & drop a CSV file

Daily or weekly panel CSV. Date/week and an outcome are required. Cannibalization, contribution, and budget response require channel spend; Forecast can run an Organic trend/seasonality model without Spend.

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Next step

Trend and displacement

Common next stepPrepare a new dataset

Incrementality analysis

Find other analyses